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Alternative TitleMedium- and Long-Term Load Forecasting Based on GLRM and MC Error Correction
崔琼1,2; 舒杰1,2; 吴志锋1,2; 黄磊1,2; 姚文明3; 宋香荣4
Source Publication新能源进展
Other AbstractTo remedy the defects of traditional grey model (GM) for ignoring linear factors and having large errors when forecasting the sequences with large random fluctuation in medium and long-term load forecasting, a model which is based on grey linear regression model (GLRM) and Markov chain (MC) is proposed. In this work, the GLRM prediction model is built. A quantitative prediction error estimation method is proposed through analyzing the transfer rule of the model fitting error, a correction model is established consequently for the predicted values of the GLRM model, and then the GLRM-MC model is created. Comparing with GM (1,1) and GLRM, simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can better grasp the inherent regularity of the actual load, and improve the prediction accuracy of the model, meanwhile, enhance the stability of fitting and forecasting effect.
Keyword中长期负荷预测 灰色线性回归模型 马尔科夫链 误差定量估算 medium- and long-term load forecasting GLRM MC quantitative estimation of error
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Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding Author舒杰
First Author AffilicationGuangZhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
崔琼,舒杰,吴志锋,等. 基于GLRM模型和MC误差修正的中长期负荷预测[J]. 新能源进展,2017,5(6):472-477.
APA 崔琼,舒杰,吴志锋,黄磊,姚文明,&宋香荣.(2017).基于GLRM模型和MC误差修正的中长期负荷预测.新能源进展,5(6),472-477.
MLA 崔琼,et al."基于GLRM模型和MC误差修正的中长期负荷预测".新能源进展 5.6(2017):472-477.
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