基于GIS的区域秸秆资源量预测与最优收集路径分析——以即墨市为例

GIEC OpenIR > 中国科学院广州能源研究所

	基于GIS的区域秸秆资源量预测与最优收集路径分析——以即墨市为例
其他题名	Application of GIS in the yield prediction and path optimization analysis of regional straw resource----A Case Study of Jimo
	张展
学位类型	硕士
导师	王利生
	2009-05-28
学位授予单位	中国科学院广州能源研究所
学位授予地点	广州能源研究所
学位名称	硕士
关键词	生物质能源秸秆资源量预测模型 Gis 最优运输路径即墨市
摘要	生物质能源作为替代能源在解决我国未来能源供需、环境保护以及社会经济的可持续发展问题中有着积极的促进作用。开发和利用生物质能源过程中存在资源、技术和市场三方面瓶颈，其中资源是技术和市场的前提与基础，生物质资源量以及原料的收集、储存和运输是目前研究的热点问题。利用GIS等现代科学技术进行生物质秸秆资源量预测，结合区域分布特征进行最优收集、运输路径的分析与评估，能够明确区域秸秆资源能源化利用的合理方式，节约运输成本。本文以青岛即墨市农作物秸秆资源量预测为基础，以20MW秸秆电厂原料收集、运输、利用以及秸秆发电系统的碳循环分析为研究对象，通过基于主成分分析的多元线性回归模型建立了即墨市主要农作物产量预测模型，完成了对即墨市2007年小麦与玉米产量预测，结合农作物谷草比经验算式对即墨市2007年小麦与玉米秸秆总量进行推算，预测值与实际值相差0.74%，预测效果良好。利用GIS空间分析方法、Erdas和Envi等遥感图像处理软件、ArcGIS工作环境，通过ArcGIS功能组件ModelBuilder建立Model并间接生成脚本的思路，实现了基于空间思想的点对点最短路径的自动判别，本文以9平方千米作为秸秆单位收集区域，通过分析秸秆原料在单位区域内外的两种不同运输模式，结合Python语言的脚本批处理功能，完成了对即墨市拟建20MW秸秆电厂所需原料的最优运输路径的批量计算以及整个运输过程中的总成本分析。综合生物质的生长到最终能源化转化过程，完成了整个发电系统的碳循环分析以及秸秆发电厂的经济效益评估。本文应用基于主成分分析的多元线性回归模型预测了研究区域内主要农作物的秸秆资源总量，弥补了直接运用多元回归方程对影响因子个数的限制与样本相对较少情况下拟合效果不佳的不足，利用ModelBuilder模型手段与Python软件的脚本批处理功能解决了ArcGIS中模型本身无法循环执行的实际困难，并对秸秆资源最短收集路径与有效收集成本实现了动态展示与科学估算，该方法可为秸秆电厂选址、原料收集运输提供基于空间技术的合理规划。通过对秸秆电厂的运行效率、原料利用、废气排放以及经济效益的相应分析，证明了在即墨市近郊设立20MW秸秆电厂的可行性。
其他摘要	Bioenergy plays an important role in energy supply-demand, exploitation efficiency, environment protection and economic development. However, 3 bottlenecks currently exist in exploitation and utilization of Bioenergy, which are resources, technology and markets and resources are the basis of the other two. Biomass production, collection, transportation and storage are the hotspot issues in current resource research area. Modern science and technology such as GIS could direct and identify the development trends of straw power utilization, with the aid of analysis and evaluation of the demographic characteristics distribution and collection routes of biomass resources. Meanwhile, the work will save transportation costs, build scientific foundations, and eventually relieve the supply-demand conflicts of straw resources and protect ecological environment. Based on crop straw resources prediction in Jimo, this article applies Multiple Linear Regression model to the straw yield prediction, collection, transportation utilization and carbon cycle of power generation system. The yield of wheat and corn in 2007 are estimated and the straw yield of wheat and corn are further derived by ratio of grain to straw model. The result shows that the relative error between the real production and forecasted production is 0.74%. Then we also acquire the batch analysis approach of path optimization by utilizing ArcGIS model, Erdas, Envi and Python script function. Likewise we set 9km2 as the units’ collection area and make two different ways of transportation, i.e. inside or outside of the unit area. The proposed approach has been applied to the raw material collection, transportation and cost analysis of Jimo straw-fired power plant with 20MW productivity. The model is expected to provide a scientific approach for comprehensive utilization of straw resource on national-wide scale. This article uses Multiple Linear Regression model which is based on the Principal Component analysis to finish the crop yield prediction of the study area. The approach successfully overcomes the disadvantages of single Multiple Linear Regression model such as influence factor restriction and poor fitting result due to fewer samples. In addition that, the article acquires the batch analysis approach of path optimization by utilizing ArcGIS model and Python script function. This method can solve the defect in the ArcGIS model self-looping execution. The dynamic illustration and estimation method provide a spatial planning for the optimal collect path of straw collection. Meanwhile, the feasibility of any plant establishment can be proved by analyzing operating efficiency; material utilization; toxic emission and economic efficiency of the straw plant.
页数	67
语种	中文
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.giec.ac.cn/handle/344007/5864
专题	中国科学院广州能源研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张展. 基于GIS的区域秸秆资源量预测与最优收集路径分析——以即墨市为例[D]. 广州能源研究所. 中国科学院广州能源研究所,2009.

条目包含的文件		下载所有文件
文件名称/大小	文献类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
Application of GIS i（2521KB）	学位论文		开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览下载