广东省2020年交通部门能源需求情景分析

GIEC OpenIR > 中国科学院广州能源研究所

	广东省2020年交通部门能源需求情景分析
其他题名	Scenario Analysis of Transportation Sector Energy Demand in Guangdong until 2020
	邱立勋
导师	赵黛青
	2008-06-06
学位授予单位	中国科学院广州能源研究所
学位授予地点	广州能源研究所
学位名称	硕士
关键词	能源需求情景分析 Ipac-aim/local模型综合交通城市客运交通
摘要	作为关系国计民生的重要部门，交通运输业的发展在提高人们的生活质量，支持社会经济中相关部门的发展，保障国家的安全等方面都做出了重要的贡献。但交通运输业的发展也带来了一系列的问题，例如对石油的依赖、空气污染、占用土地、温室气体排放等。近年来，广东省社会经济的快速发展带动了交通需求的增长，由此导致了交通运输部门能源需求的迅速增长，同时也加重了能源安全和生态环境问题。对广东省交通运输部门进行能源需求情景分析是建设可持续交通的基础。论文围绕广东省交通运输部门能源需求情景分析，进行了以下几个方面的探索：第一，对广东省交通运输部门近二十年来的发展历程和能源消费状况进行全面的总结和分析。在总结交通运输部门发展状况部分主要研究了交通运输量的增长规律和增长趋势，各运输模式的结构比例及演变趋势。在分析交通运输部门能源消费状况部分时，测算了广东省整个运输部门的能耗总量及占终端能耗比例。当把非营运交通并入综合交通从新测算后，发现广东省2005年整个交通部门能源消费占当年终端能源消费的16.55％。同时提出了用综合交通能源强度来衡量广东省综合交通运输部门单耗的变化，计算并把这一数值和全国水平进行对比发现，2005年广东省综合交通能源强度是全国的两倍还多。第二，对广东省综合交通能源需求进行情景分析。按照层层递进的关系，首先采用计量经济模型对广东省到2020年的交通运输需求进行预测；接着引进完全分解模型对广东省综合交通能耗进行服务量因子，结构因子和技术单耗因子的分解；然后对各运输模式结构比例演变趋势进行预测分析，同时分析了各个运输模式内部各类技术单耗的变化；在满足交通运输需求的前提下，通过改变结构和技术这两个因素，设定了四个情景，分别是基准情景、技术进步情景、公路强化情景和铁路强化情景。运用IPAC-AIM/Local模型对这四个情景进行能源需求和CO2排放量测算。结果显示，技术进步情景和铁路强化情景能有效的降低综合交通能源需求总量和有力的削减了CO2排放量。铁路强化情景能减少对成品油的依赖，转而加大对电力的需求；公路强化情景则增加了对成品油的依赖，这将有可能进一步加剧广东省成品油的供给压力。因此，广东省可以通过实现各运输模式的技术进步来抑制综合交通能耗的快速增长，也可以通过优化综合交通各运输模式的比例来达到节能降耗的目标。第三，选取广州市客运交通作为全省城市客运交通的一个缩影来研究。依据广州市历年的出行调查数据，在确保广州市客运交通需求正常增长的前提下，研究了以个体交通为主导和以公共交通为主导的两种发展模式，对未来能源需求和大气污染物排放的影响。研究结果表明，通过调整交通出行模式，大力发展公共交通能够显著减少能源需求，是保障能源安全和降低大气污染物排放量的有力举措，是实现城市客运交通能源与环境可持续发展的有效途径。建议政府在广州市未来交通规划建设中重点部署和发展。总结以上，本文设定了多条合理可能的发展路径，对广东省交通运输部门到2020年进行能源需求情景分析。相关研究结论可以给广东省交通运输部门的能源供给，节能减排，环境保护等方面的工作提供一些科学的、具有前瞻性和可以操作执行的决策建议和参考依据。
其他摘要	As an important sector related to national plans and civilian lives, the development of the transportation industry has made great contribution to the improvement of people’s life quality, promotion of the development of socio-economic related departments, ensuring national security, etc. While in the other aspect, the development of the transportation industry has also brought about a series of problems, such as dependence on oil, air pollution and occupation of land, greenhouse gas emissions, etc. In recent years, Guangdong Province's rapid economic development has driven the growth of traffic demand, which led to the transport sector's rapid growth in energy demand, but also increased energy security, ecological and environmental problems. Energy demand scenario analysis of Guangdong Province’s transport sector is the basis for building sustainable transport. This paper carried out energy demand scenario analysis around the Guangdong Provincial transport sector and made the following areas’ exploration. First, this paper made conclusion and analysis to the development process and energy consumption status of Guangdong Province’s transport sector over the past 20 years. In summing up the transport sector development, the growth law and trend of the traffic volume, the proportion of all transport modes and evolution trend were investigated. When analyzing the status of the transport sector’s the energy consumption, the whole energy consumption and the ratio in the terminal energy consumption of the Guangdong Province's transport sector were surveyed. When the non-operating traffic was incorporated into the integrated transport, calculations were made again. We found that the whole energy consumption of Guangdong Province’s transport sector accounted for 16.55% of the terminal energy consumption in 2005. At the same time, comprehensive transport energy intensity was recommended to evaluate the change of the unit energy consumption in Guangdong Provincial integrated transport sector. In comparison with the average level of the whole country, we found that the comprehensive transport energy intensity was twice of the average level in the whole country. Second, the scenarios analysis of Guangdong province’s integrated transport energy demand was then carried out. In accordance with the progressive relations between the layers, we used an econometric model to predict the transport demand of Guangdong Province till 2020. Then completely decomposed model was introducted to decompose Guangdong Province’s comprehensive traffic energy consumption in several aspects, including the service volume factor, structure factor and unit technical consumption factor. After that, we predicted and analysed the structure, proportion and evolution trend of all kinds of transportion modes, also the kinds of unit technical consumption inside all the transportion modes. Under the circumstance of meeting transport need, by changing the structure and technology, we set four scenarios, including baseline scenario, technological progress scenario, highways strengthening scenario and railways strengthening scenario. IPAC-AIM/Local model was used to calculate the energy demand and CO2 emissions of these four scenarios. The results showed that the technological progress scenario and the railways strengthening scenario can effectively reduce the total transport energy demand and CO2 emissions. Railways strengthening scenario can decrease the dependence on oil products, in turn increasing demand for electrical power. Highways strengthening scenario increased reliance on refined oil, which will further intensify the pressure of Guangdong Province’s supply of finished oil products. Therefore, Guangdong Province can achieve integrated technological progress of all modes of transport to curb the rapid growth of transport energy consumption, and can also optimize the proportion of all transport modes to achieve the goal of saving energy and reducing consumption. Third, Guangzhou's urban passenger transport was investigated as the microcosm of the whole Guangdong province’s passenger transport. According to every year’s travel survey data of Guangzhou City, to ensure Guangzhou’s normal growth in passenger traffic demand, we studied effect of the individual traffic dominant development mode and the public transport dominant development mode on the energy demand and air pollutants emission. Results showed that by adjusting the travel mode of transport, vigorously developing the public transport can significantly reduce energy demand, which is a powerful initiative to ensure the energy security and reduce emissions of air pollutants, and also which is an effective way to achieve the sustainable development of the city passenger transport’s energy and environment. Thus this paper suggested that Guangzhou should make key planning and development in the future transport planning and construction. To sum up, this paper set several reasonable possible paths of development. We also made the energy demand scenarios analysis of the Guangdong Province’s transport department till 2020. Results of this study could provide some scientific, forward-looking and operable decision-making suggestions and references for Guangdong Province’s transport departments’energy supply, energy-saving and emission reduction, environmental protection, etc.
页数	82
语种	中文
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.giec.ac.cn/handle/344007/5808
专题	中国科学院广州能源研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	邱立勋. 广东省2020年交通部门能源需求情景分析[D]. 广州能源研究所. 中国科学院广州能源研究所,2008.

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