广东省若干重要领域的能源情景研究

GIEC OpenIR > 中国科学院广州能源研究所

	广东省若干重要领域的能源情景研究
其他题名	Forecasting and Scenario Analysis for the Energy Situation of Some Important Domain in Guangdong Province
	陈愚
导师	赵黛青
	2008-06-06
学位授予单位	中国科学院广州能源研究所
学位授予地点	广州能源研究所
学位名称	博士
关键词	广东省能源情景分析自下而上模型能源政策环境
摘要	能源是经济发展和社会进步的重要物质基础。能源作为燃料和化工原料，保障和供给了工业、农业、商业、交通运输以及居民生活的使用。随着广东省经济的快速发展，能源消费将继续增长，而广东省的能源资源匮乏，近年来能源自给率不断下降，对外依存度高，能源供需矛盾日益突出。同时，化石能源的大量使用，已经对广东省的环境造成了严重危害。面对不利局面，广东必须加强能源发展战略的研究，以安全、经济、环保的能源供应，保证广东经济的可持续发展。本文应用国家发改委能源研究所开发的自下而上型能源技术模型： AIM-Enduse模型，采用情景分析的方法，将广东省的能源消费按照部门进行划分，从中选取电力、乙烯、居民生活三个部门进行能源情景分析。电力：首先回顾了广东省近年来电力生产和消费情况，根据广东省电力消费的增长趋势，以及未来广东省的经济增长情况，利用线性回归和弹性系数法预测2020年的电力消费量。参考发达国家的经济和电力消费情况，选择弹性系数法的预测值。根据广东省电力工业的相关规划、根据本省的能源资源量，以及可获得的能源资源量，设定基准情景的电源结构。在满足电力消费量需求的情况下，通过利用大规模购入西电减少本省发电量、提高火电发电效率、增加可再生能源发电量，设定三个对比情景进行分析。购买西电以减少本省发电量，可有效减少化石能源消费量和温室气体排放量，但是随着西南几省的经济发展，很有可能减少外送电量。关闭小火电机组，用高效的超临界、超超临界机组替代，改善技术构成，可提高火电发电效率。采用风电、生物质发电、垃圾发电的等可再生能源技术，充分利用广东省充沛的可再生能源资源，可替代部分火电，减少化石能源消费量。乙烯：根据广东省石化工业发展规划，确定乙烯未来的产能。2005年乙烯工业消耗的油品，在油品总消费量所占比重不到2%，但是，2020年乙烯工业将消费30%左右的油品。在满足生产量的前提下，通过改善原料结构、征收碳税等设定三个能源情景进行分析。使用轻质的原料可降低乙烯的能耗，提高收率。充分利用广东省进口LNG的乙烷组分，用于乙烯生产，以改善原料结构，提高收率、降低能耗。我国的石油资源偏重，轻质油较少，采用以重油为原料的HCC技术可拓宽乙烯原料来源，但是HCC技术能耗高、污染物排放量大，不利于节能减排。征收碳税可提高清洁技术的竞争力，但是当税值较低时，效果有限。居民生活：首先对生活用能的发展历程和能源消费现状进行分析，并将生活用能按（照明、制冷、家用电器、炊事热水用途）划分开，以便于分析。根据广东省的社会经济发展、居民生活用能的发展趋势，预测居民生活的服务量需求。在满足生活用能服务量的前提下，通过改变生活用能技术的比例，设定三个情景进行分析。发现在四个用途中，炊事热水的能源消费量和二氧化碳排放量始终是最大的。也就是说，在生活用能的四个用途中，炊事热水是节能减排潜力最大的领域。将清洁高效的天然气直接应用于居民生活，增大太阳能热水器的比重，促进炊事热水的节能减排。在农村应用生物质能现代利用技术，高效率地利用传统的生物质能，可替代化石能源，减轻对能源供应的压力，有利于环境保护。同时，注重技术进步，推广节能技术的应用，采用节俭的生活，避免过度追求舒适性而采用高能耗设备，以促进居民生活用能的节能减排。
其他摘要	Energy is an important material basis of the development of modern sosiety. Energy supply fuel and chemical raw materials for industry, agriculture, commerce, transport and residential consumption. With the rapid economic development of Guangdong province, energy consumption will continue to increase. Guangdong Province's energy resource is scarce, and energy self-sufficiency rate has been decreasing. Contradiction between energy supply and demand is prominent. At the same time, the large-scale use of fossil energy has caused serious e environmental pollution. With the unfavorable situation, it is need to study the energy strategy to ensure the environment-friendly energy supply. With AIM-Enduse (bottom-up) model, the scenario simulation is given for the future development of eletricity, ethylene and residential consumption. First the electricity production and consumption in recent years is reviewed. According to economic growth, electricity consumption trends and the experience of developed country, the electricity consumption and constitutes are forecasted. Three scenarioes are built to simulate the development of electricity. Transmitting electric power from south-west china to Guangdong can decrease the fossil fule consumption and greenhouse gas emission. But the economic growth of south-west china likely to reduce delivery of electricity. Small thermal power generation units is closed down, and supercritical pressure combustion and ultra-supercritical combustion is substituted to improve the thermal efficiency. With the technology of wind power, biomass, garbage Power Generation, the abundant renewable energy resources in Guangdong Province is used to replace part of fossil fuel consumption. According to the development strategy of petrochemical industry in Guangdong province, ethylene capacity is forecasted. Only 2 percent of oil is consumed in ethylene industry in 2005, but the proportion will increase to 30 percent in 2020. The scenarioes are built by optimization of feedstock or CO2 taxation. Large quantities of LNG will be imported in Guangdong province, the ethane component in LNG will be used to produce ethylene and optimized the feedstock. The resource of ethylene feedstock will be enlarged by the technology of HCC, but the concomitant high energy consumption and SO2 emission should be faced and solved.The market competition of higher efficiency technology will be increased by CO2 taxation, but the effect is limited, when the tax value is low. The situation of residential comsuption in recent years is reviewed. Residential erengy comsuption is separated into four portions (lighting, refrigeration, household appliances, kitchen and hot water). According to the socio-economic development of Guangdong Province, the service demand of residents energy consumption is forecast. Three scenarioes are built by changing the technology structure. The energy consumption and CO2 emissions of kitchen and hot water is always the biggest. The potential of kitchen and hot water in energy-saving and emission reduction potential should be concerned. Natural gas will be directly used in residential consumption for its clean and high efficiency. The biomass energy in rural areas will be used effectively by renewable technology to substitutes for fossil energy, at the same time, which is conducive to environmental protection. When the energy-saving technologies is focused, the concept of thrifty life should be advocated to avoid the excessive pursuit of comfort and the waste of erengy.
页数	136
语种	中文
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.giec.ac.cn/handle/344007/4053
专题	中国科学院广州能源研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	陈愚. 广东省若干重要领域的能源情景研究[D]. 广州能源研究所. 中国科学院广州能源研究所,2008.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	文献类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
200518014924002陈愚_pa（1830KB）			开放获取	--	浏览请求全文