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天然气水合物资源经济评估
其他题名economic evaluation model of natral gas hydrate resource
刘晓宇
导师樊栓狮
2007-06-09
学位授予单位中国科学院广州能源研究所
学位授予地点广州能源研究所
学位名称硕士
关键词净现值 天然气水合物 经济评估 经济可采 最低经济储量
摘要天然气水合物作为一种新型的、高效的洁净能源,储量巨大且分布广泛,目前各国已对其物性及勘探开发技术开展了深入细致的研究工作。矿藏只有开采才能实现其经济价值。油气开采是投资大、周期长的工程,因此在投资开发一个天然气水合物矿藏前,需要对项目的经济可行性进行评估,确定其是否具有可采性,降低开采的风险。 本文针对目前的水合物研究状况,以国际上经济评估中最常用的净现值法为基础,把各种水合物开发中的影响因素量化处理,建立经济评估的数学模型。在经济评估模型中,尝试引入水合物资源开发的技术特点,使模型更接近于实际情况。 借鉴常规天然气勘探开采的投资额度,对各种经济、技术因素量化,本文对一个特定的天然气水合物矿藏进行经济评估,计算项目的净现值。从计算结果可以看到:勘探投资和建设工程投资对项目净现值( )影响很小,净现值主要取决于税率 和经营成本 。因此对一个水合物的开采项目,主要的工作是降低经营成本。在税率为25%,即使把天然气水合物开采的经营成本提高到常规气体的2倍,地面工程投资提高至常规气开采的3倍,计算得到的净现值仍然为正值,仍然可以从水合物矿藏开采项目中获得巨大的经济效益。 天然气水合物矿藏一般存在于海底和冻土层中,甲烷资源量一般在1012~1014m3之间。在最低储量评估模型中,对变量进行合理的假设后,分析了水合物饱和度( )和埋藏深度( )两个关键因素对最低经济储量( )的影响。计算结果表明:0.0012为 极小值点,当 , 标准m3,已超过了常规甲烷水合物的储量。所以,对于开采饱和度小于0.0012的矿藏项目应予以慎重考虑。模型还对黑海海域、墨西哥湾西北区、布莱克海台、南海海槽等已有广泛研究的区域进了评估,根据模型的评估结果,上述区域均有开采价值,能够带来经济效益。 本文所建立的天然气水合物矿藏经济评估模型和最低经济储量模型能为判断项目是否具有经济意义提供参考,鉴于现有的关于水合物资源的数据还比较少,工业开采水合物资源的实例不多,因此计算模型的科学性还有待于在实际生产中加以验证。
其他摘要Natural gas hydrate, as a new kind of clean energy with high-efficiency and huge-reserves, exists in many countries and regions around the world. Nowadays many researches have been done on its properties and exploration technologies. As we all know, the economic value of mineral resources can only be obtained through reasonable exploitation methods. The projects of petroleum or gas exploiting always need large-scale capital devotion and have long investment recovery periods. So it is very important to evaluate the economic viability of a natural gas hydrate-exploiting project before investing in order to eliminate unreasonable projects and reduce the risk of investment. Aiming at present research on natural gas hydrate, the author proposes a mathematic model for economic evaluation founded on net present value method, which is one kind of evaluation methods most widely adopted in evaluating petroleum or coal. In this model the factors impacting upon the exploitation process are quantified, and the author attempts to take the characters of hydrate exploitation into account, so the model can be used to simulate the actual process. Drawing lessons from the investment of natural gas exploitation, the model in which all kind of economic and technology factors are quantified is used to evaluate a given natural gas hydrate resource and calculate the net present value of the project. The result reveals that the amount of exploitation capital and ground construction investment has little influence on NPV, and the NPV mainly depends on the tax rate( )and operating cost( ). So the work emphasis of natural gas hydrate exploitation is to reduce .Under tax rate of 25%, even if the operating cost of natural gas hydrate exploitation were raised to 2 times of that of conventional gas, ground construction investment were raised to 3 times, the calculated NPV is still plus, namely , the natural gas hydrate exploitation project can yield good economic returns. Natural gas hydrate often exists beneath the sea floor or frozen ground, and the methane resources in it usually range between 1012m3 and 1014m3. In the lowest reserve evaluation model, the author analyzes how the two factors hydrate saturation ( ) and buried depth ( ) influence the lowest economic reserve ( ). The results reveal that the minimum value of is 0.0012, when h=100m, Nm3, which exceeds the normal reserves of methane hydrate. So investor should be choosey about resources, the x of which is less than 0.0012. Evaluations of the Black Sea region, the Gulf of Mexico, the Blake Ridge and Nankai Trough were made employing this model. According to the results of evaluation, the natural gas resources in these regions are economic recoverable. The evaluation models for natural gas hydrate proposed in this paper can provide references to judge if the project is economic. At present the data related to hydrate exploitation is very scarce, and there are only a few industrial examples, so it still needs to be validated in real exploitation whether the model is scientific.
页数74
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.giec.ac.cn/handle/344007/4017
专题中国科学院广州能源研究所
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
刘晓宇. 天然气水合物资源经济评估[D]. 广州能源研究所. 中国科学院广州能源研究所,2007.
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