Comprehensive Evaluation of Electric Power Prediction Models Based on D-S Evidence Theory Combined with Multiple Accuracy Indicators

doi:10.35833/MPCE.2020.000470

GIEC OpenIR

	Comprehensive Evaluation of Electric Power Prediction Models Based on D-S Evidence Theory Combined with Multiple Accuracy Indicators
	Cui, Qiong1,2 ; Zhu, Jizhong 1,2; Shu, Jie2 ; Huang, Lei 2; Ma, Zetao 2
	2022-05-01
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF MODERN POWER SYSTEMS AND CLEAN ENERGY
ISSN	2196-5625
卷号	10 期号:3 页码:597-605
通讯作者	Zhu, Jizhong(zhujz@scut.edu.cn)
摘要	A comprehensive evaluation method of electric power prediction models using multiple accuracy indicators is proposed. To obtain the preferred models, this paper selects a number of accuracy indicators that can reflect the accuracy of single-point prediction and the correlation of predicted data, and carries out a comprehensive evaluation. First, according to Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory, a new accuracy indicator based on the relative error (RE) is proposed to solve the problem that RE is inconsistent with other indicators in the quantity of evaluation values and cannot be adopted at the same time. Next, a new dimensionless method is proposed, which combines the efficiency coefficient method with the extreme value method to unify the accuracy indicator into a dimensionless positive indicator, to avoid the conflict between pieces of evidence caused by the minimum value of zero. On this basis, the evidence fusion is used to obtain the comprehensive evaluation value of each model. Then, the principle and the process of consistency checking of the proposed method using the entropy method and the linear combination formula are described. Finally, the effectiveness and the superiority of the proposed method are validated by an illustrative instance.
关键词	Predictive models Evidence theory Biological system modeling Power systems Finite element analysis Correlation Analytical models Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory multiple accuracy indicators electric power prediction model comprehensive evaluation
DOI	10.35833/MPCE.2020.000470
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Key R&D Program of China[2016YFB0901405] ; Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Planning Project of China[2020A0505100004] ; Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Planning Project of China[2018A050506069] ; Guangdong Provincial Special Fund Project for Marine Economic Development of China[[2020]020]
WOS研究方向	Engineering
项目资助者	National Key R&D Program of China ; Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Planning Project of China ; Guangdong Provincial Special Fund Project for Marine Economic Development of China
WOS类目	Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS记录号	WOS:000797467700006
出版者	IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
引用统计	被引频次：3[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.giec.ac.cn/handle/344007/36675
专题	中国科学院广州能源研究所
通讯作者	Zhu, Jizhong
作者单位	1.South China Univ Technol, Sch Elect Power, Guangzhou, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Guangzhou Inst Energy Convers, Key Lab Renewable Energy, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	中国科学院广州能源研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cui, Qiong,Zhu, Jizhong,Shu, Jie,et al. Comprehensive Evaluation of Electric Power Prediction Models Based on D-S Evidence Theory Combined with Multiple Accuracy Indicators[J]. JOURNAL OF MODERN POWER SYSTEMS AND CLEAN ENERGY,2022,10(3):597-605.
APA	Cui, Qiong,Zhu, Jizhong,Shu, Jie,Huang, Lei,&Ma, Zetao.(2022).Comprehensive Evaluation of Electric Power Prediction Models Based on D-S Evidence Theory Combined with Multiple Accuracy Indicators.JOURNAL OF MODERN POWER SYSTEMS AND CLEAN ENERGY,10(3),597-605.
MLA	Cui, Qiong,et al."Comprehensive Evaluation of Electric Power Prediction Models Based on D-S Evidence Theory Combined with Multiple Accuracy Indicators".JOURNAL OF MODERN POWER SYSTEMS AND CLEAN ENERGY 10.3(2022):597-605.