Long-term cost trajectories for biofuels in China projected to 2050

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.126

GIEC OpenIR

	Long-term cost trajectories for biofuels in China projected to 2050
	Xu, Jie1,2 ; Yuan, Zhenhong1 ; Chang, Shiyan 3,4
	2018-10-01
发表期刊	ENERGY
ISSN	0360-5442
卷号	160 页码:452-465
通讯作者	Chang, Shiyan(changshiyan@tsinghua.edu.cn)
摘要	Biofuels mitigate and offset greenhouse gases. A long-term levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimation for biofuels in China was carried out, using a novel probabilistic model to analyze the likelihood of biofuels economically outrunning fossil fuels. This model calculated LCOE based on five uncertain input parameters fed into a Monte Carlo simulation, namely, discount rate, firm size, feedstock price, product yield and catalyst/enzyme cost, while key assumptions were used to determine their probability distributions. Model results show that the mean levelized costs of most biofuel technologies will fall below 9500 Chinese Yuan per ton by 2030 and below 9000 Chinese Yuan per ton by 2050; it is highly possible for most biofuel technologies to gain economic feasibility and competitiveness by around 2025-2030 in China. The LCOE reduction of 1.5-generation (1.5G) biofuels is feedstock-driven, while that of 2nd -generation (2G) biofuels is technology-driven. Meanwhile, 1.5G biofuels are more sensitive to crude oil price changes than 2G biofuels, with a drop in crude oil price having a greater effect on 2G biofuels than a rise. On average, every 10% rise in crude oil price accelerates their economic feasibility by 2-3 years, while every 10% drop delays this feasibility by 3-5 years. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
关键词	Biofuel Monte Carlo simulation Uncertainty analysis Levelized cost of energy Renewable energy
DOI	10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.126
关键词[WOS]	FISCHER-TROPSCH SYNTHESIS ; MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION ; LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT ; TECHNOECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ; LEVELIZED COST ; BIODIESEL PRODUCTION ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; RENEWABLE ENERGY ; POWER-GENERATION ; PRODUCT DISTRIBUTION
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71673165] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71690244] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71774095]
WOS研究方向	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
项目资助者	National Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS类目	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS记录号	WOS:000445985300037
出版者	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
引用统计	被引频次：14[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.giec.ac.cn/handle/344007/23989
专题	中国科学院广州能源研究所
通讯作者	Chang, Shiyan
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Guangzhou Inst Energy Convers, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong, Peoples R China 2.Danish Energy Agcy, DK-1256 Copenhagen, Denmark 3.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Energy Environm & Econ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 4.Tsinghua Univ, Tsinghua Rio Tinto Joint Res Ctr Resources Energy, Lab Low Carbon Energy, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	中国科学院广州能源研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Jie,Yuan, Zhenhong,Chang, Shiyan. Long-term cost trajectories for biofuels in China projected to 2050[J]. ENERGY,2018,160:452-465.
APA	Xu, Jie,Yuan, Zhenhong,&Chang, Shiyan.(2018).Long-term cost trajectories for biofuels in China projected to 2050.ENERGY,160,452-465.
MLA	Xu, Jie,et al."Long-term cost trajectories for biofuels in China projected to 2050".ENERGY 160(2018):452-465.